AI Commodities Forecast & Market Analysis

Commodities — Quantitative Target Prices

Two models, one public scoreboard. Every asset gets a BUY or SELL side with the odds of finishing higher over the next 5 trading days, the limit price to bid and the stop that protects it — refreshed daily.

Loading... Target: — Publicly scored — misses included
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What to do today (5 trading days ahead · two models, one scoreboard)

Strategy — BUY above 50% odds of finishing higher, SELL below. Limit orders only, stop attached, 1% of equity at risk per trade.
The order geometry alone loses net of costs (8,770 walk-forward trades). It says where to bid, not whether to — only a real directional edge pays for it, and the live ledger is measuring whether ours has one.
The part that is profitable is elsewhere: a volatility-targeted book, Sharpe 1.11 over eleven years, −14% worst drawdown, no forecast — The Portfolio →

Read this first — what the numbers mean, and what “unvalidated” means

“Unvalidated” is a status, not legal boilerplate. It means this model has not yet beaten a coin flip on a public, out-of-sample, scored record. It keeps a column here because it is being measured in the open: every prediction is booked at its target date, hits and misses. If the live hit rate stays at 50%, the honest conclusion is that the column is worth nothing — and this page will keep saying so. If it climbs meaningfully above 50% over a few hundred scored calls, it graduates. Information, not instruction.

Why no probability here exceeds 55%. Taken literally, our model's raw output sometimes implies “83% chance this falls this week”. Nothing measured on this site supports that confidence: the scored directional record is ~48% over 63 calls, the Kronos backtest was 50.1% over 1,086 predictions, and four pre-committed alpha studies all failed their bars. So every tilt is published on a squashed 45–55% scale — the ranking survives, the overclaim does not. Hover any probability to see the uncapped number.

The three numbers that are genuinely calibrated are the fill odds (how often price comes down/up to your limit), the 80% price range, and the volatility behind both. Those come from 20,000 simulated paths built on each asset's own return history and are verified by walk-forward coverage tests. A probability of direction is a forecast; a probability of travel is arithmetic on volatility — the second is much more reliable, which is why the orders are built around it.

How to trade a row. Place the limit at the entry — never a market order. If price never comes to you, you have no trade that week, and that is a normal outcome. The moment you are filled, set the stop and the take-profit. Risk at most 1% of the account between entry and stop, so every position carries identical risk whatever the asset's volatility.

Model 1 — Swiss Quant (our engine: momentum, volatility, cross-asset and macro features)

Model 2 — Kronos (open-source candlestick foundation model, AAAI 2026, run daily on this server)

Move Probabilities

Where price is likely to end by the horizon: the chance it finishes up at least X%, stays inside ±X%, or finishes down at least X% — the three always add up to 100%. Hover a chip for the touch odds: the chance price trades through that level at least once during the window. Touch odds are what fill a limit order, which is why they can exceed the end odds and why up and down can both happen in the same week.

Commodity Market Analysis & Trading Signals

Professional commodity pattern recognition and market analysis for precious metals, energy, and agricultural futures. Get real-time trading signals for gold, silver, crude oil (WTI & Brent), natural gas, copper, wheat, corn, and more using advanced AI algorithms and quantitative analysis.

⚠️ Risk Disclosure: Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading signals and analysis are for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Commodity markets are influenced by numerous factors including supply/demand dynamics, geopolitical events, weather conditions, and currency fluctuations. Always conduct thorough research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making any trading decisions.

Live Commodity Chart

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⚙ How Swiss-Quant AI Generates Commodities Forecasts

Commodities Ensemble Model

Swiss-Quant commodities forecasts use XGBoost + LightGBM ensemble models to predict 7-day price targets for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, crude oil (WTI and Brent), natural gas, copper, and agricultural commodities including wheat, corn, and coffee. Each commodity model is individually calibrated to its unique market microstructure and seasonal patterns.

Technical and Supply-Demand Features

The model processes 35+ features per commodity including standard technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, ADX, Stochastic), Fibonacci retracement levels, and commodity-specific supply-demand signals. For crude oil, this includes EIA inventory data and OPEC production estimates. For precious metals, the model tracks COMEX futures positioning from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and ETF fund flows (GLD, SLV, IAU).

Macro and Cross-Asset Correlations

Commodity prices are heavily influenced by macro factors. The model integrates US dollar strength (DXY), real interest rates (TIPS yields), inflation expectations (breakeven rates), and central bank gold reserve changes. Cross-asset correlation features capture the gold-silver ratio, oil-gas spread, copper-gold ratio (economic health proxy), and commodity-equity correlations that shift during risk-on versus risk-off regimes.

Seasonal and Settlement Timing

Commodities exhibit strong seasonal patterns (heating oil in winter, agricultural harvest cycles). The model incorporates seasonal decomposition features and contract roll effects. Forecasts are generated daily at 19:30 CET after US market settlement to capture the latest EIA, USDA, and pit session data. All predictions undergo walk-forward validation on 200+ out-of-sample periods with purged cross-validation.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this platform is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Swiss Quant Capital is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or financial planner. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The trade ideas and forecasts presented are generated by AI models and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.